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BBQ Meat Math: How Much is Enough?

The Pitmaster’s Anxiety

There is no greater fear for a BBQ host than running out of meat before the last guest has been served. Conversely, nobody wants to spend $200 on a brisket only to realize they have ten pounds of leftovers they can’t finish.

Mastering “Meat Math” is the key to a stress-free party.

A Massive BBQ Platter

The Golden Rule of BBQ Math

For a standard party where BBQ is the main event, you should aim for 1/2 pound (8 oz) of cooked meat per person.

If you are serving “big eaters” or it’s a long event where people will graze, bump that up to 3/4 pound. If you have a lot of heavy sides (mac and cheese, potato salad, beans), you can drop it to 1/3 pound.

The Variable: “The Shrink”

This is where beginners get tripped up. A 15-pound raw brisket does not produce 15 pounds of food. Between trimming fat and the loss of moisture during the long smoke, you will lose a significant amount of weight.

  • Brisket: Loses roughly 50% of its weight. (A 15lb raw packer yields ~7.5lb cooked meat).
  • Pork Butt: Loses roughly 40-50% of its weight.
  • Ribs: Calculate by the rack. 1/2 rack per person is the standard for a mixed menu.
  • Chicken: Calculate by the piece. 2-3 pieces per person (e.g., a drumstick and a thigh).

The “Big B” Calculation Formula

To calculate how much raw meat to buy:

  1. Count your guests. (e.g., 20 people)
  2. Multiply by 0.5 lbs. (20 x 0.5 = 10 lbs of cooked meat needed).
  3. Account for shrink (x2 for Brisket/Pork). (10 lbs cooked x 2 = 20 lbs of raw meat to buy).

Tips for the Host

  • Variety Matters: If you are serving two meats (e.g., Brisket and Pulled Pork), you don’t need 1/2 pound of each. You need 1/2 pound total. I usually split the ratio 60/40 in favor of the more popular meat (usually the brisket).
  • Kids Count as Half: For every two children under 12, count them as one adult.
  • Plan for Leftovers: BBQ is often better the next day. If you want leftovers, simply add 2-3 extra pounds to your final “raw” purchase.

With a little bit of math up front, you can spend less time worrying about the quantity and more time focusing on the quality of your smoke.